A recent study from Colorado State University, published in the journal Geology, provides new insights into how climate change can influence earthquake frequency, adding to a growing body of evidence suggesting that climate shifts can impact the seismic cycle.
CSU geoscientists conducted research on the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern Colorado, a region with an active fault along its western edge. Their findings suggest that during the last ice age, the fault was kept in place by the weight of glaciers. As these glaciers melted, increased movement along the fault followed. This indicates that as glaciers recede, earthquake activity along fault lines could intensify.
"Climate change is occurring much faster than we typically see in the geologic record," said Cece Hurtado, the study's lead author, who conducted the research for her master's thesis.
"We're witnessing rapid glacial retreats in regions like Alaska, the Himalayas, and the Alps, areas that also experience active tectonics. This work shows that as climate change alters ice and water loads, tectonically active areas may experience more frequent fault movements and earthquakes due to rapidly changing stress conditions."
While it is widely understood that tectonic changes can influence climate, with mountain uplift altering atmospheric circulation and rainfall patterns, fewer studies have explored how climate itself affects tectonics. This study is one of the few linking seismic activity to climate.
"Although we've been able to model these processes for some time, finding examples in nature has been challenging," said Sean Gallen, a Geosciences associate professor and senior author of the study. "This provides compelling evidence that the atmosphere and solid Earth are intricately connected in measurable ways."
During the last ice age, glaciers covered the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. The researchers used remote-sensing and field data to determine the location of the ice, calculate the load it exerted on the fault, and measure fault displacement, or the extent to which the fault had shifted.
The study revealed that fault slip rates have been five times faster since the last ice age compared to the time when the range was covered in glaciers. This research offers a glimpse into how other glacier-adjacent faults might respond to a warming climate.
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Gallen emphasized that this work enhances our understanding of earthquake triggers, which is vital for assessing hazards. Faults near rapidly retreating glaciers or large bodies of evaporating water should be closely monitored for increased seismic activity.
The findings are also significant for seismologists studying prehistoric seismic records and determining the recurrence intervals of active faults. Gallen suggests that hydrologic processes over geologic time must be considered in these calculations.
"This study suggests that the repeat time of earthquakes may not always be periodic," he said. "There can be periods with a surge of earthquakes in a short time and other periods with none at all."
The Sangre de Cristo Mountains were ideal for this research due to their location along the Rio Grande Rift, which provided a baseline for the fault's background slip rate. The researchers observed faster, intermittent fault slip rates linked to past glaciations. As glaciers that had previously suppressed the fault melted, the slip rate accelerated to catch up with the background tectonic rate.
"It’s like a small lever tweaking the rate at which the fault moves, but the long-term rate is set by the background tectonic processes," Gallen explained.
The study utilized a public database of high-resolution elevation data, supplemented by high-precision GPS measurements of fault displacement. Timing for the displacement was determined using the age of nearby sediment deposits.
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